Made a disastrous ETF trading this week. First, was TBT. I had both long and short position. The long position was the hedge. I exited the long position the day before yesterday. Looking at the chart, it bumped against $39 level twice suggesting to me that the range-bound trade was playing out. So exited the position 2 days ago. Yesterday, there was surprisingly strong economic numbers – ADP and Non-manufacturing ISM. TBT gapped up. I should have sold it when it surpassed $39 but I hesitated hoping that it’s fade. Did not happen. It moved quickly to $40 but did not hold that level. Today, I was hoping that the fade continued. Didn’t happen. The momentum was too strong. After it broke above the opening high, I covered the short. The most depressing part of this trade is that I initiated the short at the low-end of the range ~$36. It was a disastrous trade. Second was UNG. This was also a ranged trade, between $22-$24. I bought it as ~$23 but promptly fell. It held the support level and just climbed steadily. It went past $24 but I thought it was moving up too quickly. I exited the position ~$25 ahead of the EIA data. The ETF wobble for 2 days but held $24 level. It gapped up the beginning of the week and reach almost $27 within 3 days. What a bummer.
My trading record has been absolutely terrible over past 15 years. I really need to make it work because it is my ultimate backup plan. Why? Because I am a 45 year old with funny accent. My career is going nowhere. I am looking around but the prospects do not look good. First I don’t know what kind of work I want to do for the next 10-15 years. Second, landing an appropriate level job will be harder given my age and “lack” of professional progress. So I have to count on trading as a last resort.
But trading has not worked out as well as I had envisioned. It is not the lack of knowledge that is handicapping me. I have read books. I have read magazine articles. I have listened to podcasts. I have watched videos. But my knowledge has not translated to results. Something is missing. I can guess what that might be, but whatever it is, I must fix it quickly. I might be out of my job before Thanksgiving – that has been typical time for layoffs. That does not give me too much time.
I would like to do Swing Trading as well as Scapling/Day Trading but my work does not allow me. So I cannot do a dry run to make sure my strategies are feasible. I can do week-long trading on ETFs but it is hard to develop strategies around that.
