The main reason for my life-long melancholy is the lack of passion in my vocation. I desperately want to grab onto something that I really feel passionate about, and also supports me financially and has social value especially to my family, community and country (US is too big for me, so it got to be Nepal). I do not think that someone out of the blue is going to come and lay my dream voaction on my feet and say "please take it". So the only alternative is me. In other words, I have to be something I have never been in my life before, I need to be a go getter.
Before I go and try to get "it", I need to know what "it" is. But it may not be easier to find given that
Monday, August 31, 2009
Sunday, August 30, 2009
What is the Plan Now?
My "job" right now is trading. I started in April. When I first started it, I gave it a 60/40 chance of success. After 5 months of track record I am not so sure. The results have NOT been unmitigating disaster but surely have been very dissapointing. I have not lost any money on trades but my gains have not covered the trading costs. The bottom-line is, on a net basis, I lost money every month. This is obviously not sustainable; and at this time, I give it a 25/75 chance of success.
I am giving another 3 months at most for trading to work. The definition of work is that I need to make be at least $3,000 in one of the months. If it does not work, I will quit working on it full-time. The goal of trading is to help cover living costs, which is not that high, around $3,000/month.
Since I had dreamt of doing this full-time even when I was working full-time at CSFB I need to make an ernest effort to make it work. I REALLY WANT TO MAKE IT WORK. I do have couple of months of data and experience, and I need to evaluate what worked and didn't work and try to learn from "best practices". I NEED TO WRITE A PROPER BUSINESS PLAN.
Since I am not confident that trading will work, I need to seriously work on my job-search. I have lost all the momentum since March-April because I was "hoping that trading will help me buy time" but obviously that's not the case. I need to start from ground up especially psychologically. The reason I lost all the momentum was because of lack of progress. I did get calls from potential employers but nothing panned out beyond phone interviews. THE BOTTOM-LINE IS THAT I HAVE TO PURSUE A MUCH SMARTER JOB SEARCH STRATEGY.
In my heart of heart, I do not want to get a job and work 9-5 because I will not feel content with that. I need to have ownership of something.
I am giving another 3 months at most for trading to work. The definition of work is that I need to make be at least $3,000 in one of the months. If it does not work, I will quit working on it full-time. The goal of trading is to help cover living costs, which is not that high, around $3,000/month.
Since I had dreamt of doing this full-time even when I was working full-time at CSFB I need to make an ernest effort to make it work. I REALLY WANT TO MAKE IT WORK. I do have couple of months of data and experience, and I need to evaluate what worked and didn't work and try to learn from "best practices". I NEED TO WRITE A PROPER BUSINESS PLAN.
Since I am not confident that trading will work, I need to seriously work on my job-search. I have lost all the momentum since March-April because I was "hoping that trading will help me buy time" but obviously that's not the case. I need to start from ground up especially psychologically. The reason I lost all the momentum was because of lack of progress. I did get calls from potential employers but nothing panned out beyond phone interviews. THE BOTTOM-LINE IS THAT I HAVE TO PURSUE A MUCH SMARTER JOB SEARCH STRATEGY.
In my heart of heart, I do not want to get a job and work 9-5 because I will not feel content with that. I need to have ownership of something.
Saturday, August 29, 2009
Back to the Basics
Have not been feeling very well psychologically. Just not in a mood to do anything. Have not exercised in more than a week. I have a feeling that I am at an inflexion point in my life/career and I am inextricably heading towards total ruin. I know I need to take strong action to fix things before it is too late but I lack the motivation. I am starting to lose confidence in my ability to execute plans. I think this lack of confidence comes from two factors. First, my inability to move ahead at CSFB. And more recently, my total lack of success in my trading venture.
My CSFB experience was a total fiasco at least post-2004. That's when my mentor left the firm and I pursued a strategy of "hanging-on as long as I can". In retrospect that was a wrong strategy because it put me in a dis-advantegeous position because I was in a "survior mode" rather than "conqering mode". I went with the flow because that was the "path of least resistance". More depressingly, I did not seriously try to carve out an alternative because "I was hoping things will take care of themeselves". Obviously they didn't. I did not have any currency with the managers of the department such that I didn't have any sponsors that looked after my career. I knew this was happening but regrettably, I did not take any action to correct it or to find alternative route.
Looking back at CSFB experience I feel terrible that I played safe and did not take professional risk. I should have been promoted to VP in 2003-04 and instead even in 2008-09 I was still an Associate. This had a terrible psychological impact on me because I could see my peers moving ahead and doing great things.
At Credit Suisse, I could have taken many corrective actions.
(a) I could have tried to leave the firm for another in the same position. That's what my colleage Brad did.
(b) I could have tried to change department. To my credit, I did make an attempt - to work with private banking strategist - but it did not pan out. I could have gone to Singapore to cover Indian economy, which could have been an interesting venture but I passed that also (but to my credit, I was just married, just bought an apartment, was finishing up my MBA).
(c) I could have tried to seriously look into something that different. To my credit, I did try trading. In fact, I was so frustrated at times that I imagined quitting to focus on trading full time. But obviously, I was not terribly good at it and I should have been more thorough with my investments.
The second reason for my deep frustration is that my "trading" vocation is going nowhere. I really wanted to be able to use it to cover my living expenses, a measely $3000/month but I don't think I can even do that. I have identified several problems (a) I have not taken advantage of big moves either up or down, esp up (b) I have been over-trading (c) when I made a loss I lost of my discipline (d) most importantly, my stock selection to trade has been terrible.
In my heart of heart, I want to succeed in trading. If I am good/decent at it, I can continue doing so even when do other things like take a new job or do something else.
My CSFB experience was a total fiasco at least post-2004. That's when my mentor left the firm and I pursued a strategy of "hanging-on as long as I can". In retrospect that was a wrong strategy because it put me in a dis-advantegeous position because I was in a "survior mode" rather than "conqering mode". I went with the flow because that was the "path of least resistance". More depressingly, I did not seriously try to carve out an alternative because "I was hoping things will take care of themeselves". Obviously they didn't. I did not have any currency with the managers of the department such that I didn't have any sponsors that looked after my career. I knew this was happening but regrettably, I did not take any action to correct it or to find alternative route.
Looking back at CSFB experience I feel terrible that I played safe and did not take professional risk. I should have been promoted to VP in 2003-04 and instead even in 2008-09 I was still an Associate. This had a terrible psychological impact on me because I could see my peers moving ahead and doing great things.
At Credit Suisse, I could have taken many corrective actions.
(a) I could have tried to leave the firm for another in the same position. That's what my colleage Brad did.
(b) I could have tried to change department. To my credit, I did make an attempt - to work with private banking strategist - but it did not pan out. I could have gone to Singapore to cover Indian economy, which could have been an interesting venture but I passed that also (but to my credit, I was just married, just bought an apartment, was finishing up my MBA).
(c) I could have tried to seriously look into something that different. To my credit, I did try trading. In fact, I was so frustrated at times that I imagined quitting to focus on trading full time. But obviously, I was not terribly good at it and I should have been more thorough with my investments.
The second reason for my deep frustration is that my "trading" vocation is going nowhere. I really wanted to be able to use it to cover my living expenses, a measely $3000/month but I don't think I can even do that. I have identified several problems (a) I have not taken advantage of big moves either up or down, esp up (b) I have been over-trading (c) when I made a loss I lost of my discipline (d) most importantly, my stock selection to trade has been terrible.
In my heart of heart, I want to succeed in trading. If I am good/decent at it, I can continue doing so even when do other things like take a new job or do something else.
Thursday, August 20, 2009
Plan B, C and D
Day trading is not working. Yesterday was a typically bad day. Lost almost $700+ but managed to trim down the loss to less than $400 by taking huge long position on WMT but with 55,000 shares traded, the total loss will still be $500+. The main reason was really bad call on MCD and TGT. My emotion caught me when I missed a big mid-day rally. I then put big long-positions on those two stocks without realizing that they were on a down-trend. Had a wide stop-loss. Left the desk at +$100 and came back and I was down $400+; really awful. I cannot sustain myself with this level of bleeding. In my prop account, which I closed last week due to my failure to pass Series 55, I was break-even in actual profit but if I took into account transaction costs, I was down $4,000.
The next couple of months will be make or break for me in terms of day-trading. I really need to very astute and discipline trader. I really need to focus on my risk-reward, and if the reward is high enough, then put large position to take advantage of the possible gain. My main short coming has been that I have failed to register huge gains because my positions have been limited. My gains have to be huge and losses small.
At this rate, the day-trading thing will not work. I should know it for sure by the end of November. I need to start seriously planning for Plans B, C and D before it is too late.
I really do not miss working at Credit Suisse because the last few years had been so frustrating. I felt that my career had totally stalled. In fact, 2004-08 were the dark years. That's after my manager Paddy left and that's when I lost the momentum in my career as I tried to hung to my position without realizing that I should have taken the risks and taken initiative to take control. I was risk-averse and I paid with my stalled-career. And now my 36 and trying to find a vocation.
Working again in the financial sector is the obvious choice but it is not my first choice. If I were to go back I need to have the full support of the mangers. Also I need to go into the area which is not dead-end.
The next couple of months will be make or break for me in terms of day-trading. I really need to very astute and discipline trader. I really need to focus on my risk-reward, and if the reward is high enough, then put large position to take advantage of the possible gain. My main short coming has been that I have failed to register huge gains because my positions have been limited. My gains have to be huge and losses small.
At this rate, the day-trading thing will not work. I should know it for sure by the end of November. I need to start seriously planning for Plans B, C and D before it is too late.
I really do not miss working at Credit Suisse because the last few years had been so frustrating. I felt that my career had totally stalled. In fact, 2004-08 were the dark years. That's after my manager Paddy left and that's when I lost the momentum in my career as I tried to hung to my position without realizing that I should have taken the risks and taken initiative to take control. I was risk-averse and I paid with my stalled-career. And now my 36 and trying to find a vocation.
Working again in the financial sector is the obvious choice but it is not my first choice. If I were to go back I need to have the full support of the mangers. Also I need to go into the area which is not dead-end.
Wednesday, August 19, 2009
Getting Stressed Out
It is 5:00am but have been awake since 3:00am. Slept at 11:00pm. So not much sleep. Don't know why I woke up but I could not get back to sleep. Random thoughts kept me awake.
What is really stressing me out is the fact that I'm in "no man's land" in terms of career. My current "career" is day trading but thus far my performance has been awful. The problem is not that I am losing money out right, I am not, but that I am not making money enough to cover my trading expenses let alone cover my living expenses ($3000/month). And this is killing my account balance. I cannot sustain for long with this kind of bleeding.
Went to a "trading class" with the guy named David. It is not actually a class. What he does his talk about his recent trading activity - mostly about how much he has made in the past week or past month. Apparantly he is a very successful day trader but he really does not have a strategy, it'll intuition. While I don't get much out of it, it does help listen to a successful trader because it gives hope.
I changed my trading account to "retail" from "prop" because I could not pass Series 55. It is quite disheartening but my dissapointment soon gave away to the fact that I didn't have to pass it. The good thing is that "stops" work and that has helped me with my trading capability. However, my trading results have not improved. In fact, my trading volume has spiked up because of the "stops" caused me to over-trade.
I really need to improve my trading results. It has been almost 6 months since I started trading and I have no more excuses. May be my last excuse is that August is a horrible month to trade and may be I should be extra-cautious during this period. If my trading results do not improve significantly by end of November, I need to seriously consider Plan B and Plan C.
Talking about alternative plans, I need to put in the seeds now because waiting for November/December will be too late. What I really need to do is to think of alternatives, which I have not.
More later.
What is really stressing me out is the fact that I'm in "no man's land" in terms of career. My current "career" is day trading but thus far my performance has been awful. The problem is not that I am losing money out right, I am not, but that I am not making money enough to cover my trading expenses let alone cover my living expenses ($3000/month). And this is killing my account balance. I cannot sustain for long with this kind of bleeding.
Went to a "trading class" with the guy named David. It is not actually a class. What he does his talk about his recent trading activity - mostly about how much he has made in the past week or past month. Apparantly he is a very successful day trader but he really does not have a strategy, it'll intuition. While I don't get much out of it, it does help listen to a successful trader because it gives hope.
I changed my trading account to "retail" from "prop" because I could not pass Series 55. It is quite disheartening but my dissapointment soon gave away to the fact that I didn't have to pass it. The good thing is that "stops" work and that has helped me with my trading capability. However, my trading results have not improved. In fact, my trading volume has spiked up because of the "stops" caused me to over-trade.
I really need to improve my trading results. It has been almost 6 months since I started trading and I have no more excuses. May be my last excuse is that August is a horrible month to trade and may be I should be extra-cautious during this period. If my trading results do not improve significantly by end of November, I need to seriously consider Plan B and Plan C.
Talking about alternative plans, I need to put in the seeds now because waiting for November/December will be too late. What I really need to do is to think of alternatives, which I have not.
More later.
Sunday, August 2, 2009
I am starting to get nervous
It is the beginning of August, which means almost 8 months of joblessness is fast approaching. I am losing my company-sponsored free healthcare at the end of the month. Beginning September I will have to pay government subsized healthcare through COBRA until December and then I am on my own. That is a pretty scary thought. Also fast approaching is the end of unemployment benefits, I think it runs out at the end of October. Under my calculation, I need between $3,000-$3,500 a month to maintain my current life style, which is $40K post-tax and $60K pre-tax.
My first hope was to make the day-trading pay for my living expenses while I think about my long-term plans but I am now realizing that it's not as "easy" as I first thought. Even after several months of doing, I am basically break-even meaning that I am losing on the trading costs which runs $100-$150 a day. There will be positive and negative days but I need to make positive days "blockbusters" and limit downsides on negative days. I am now giving up on my "prop" account because I could not pass Series 55 and only focusing on being a "retail" trader. The downside is that I'll have less leverage, only 4x versus 10x but I've never fully used up my leverage and so it really does not matter.
I am assuming that the slow summer months is the cause for my trading results. That means I am giving myself until November to see if this trading really works for me. If not, I will have to think about something else by next year.
I am still in a job-hunting mode. Although I am not very enthusiastic about getting another Job, I am getting more enthusiastic than before. That partly reflects my desire to have more financial security. Nothing has panned as of yet but I am hopeful that something will soon. If it is a job, I need to stick to my interest, which is investment research or active investment. One thing I am pinning my hope on is my former colleague/manager might land on something in the US (he is currently in the UK) and he'll ask me to join his team but we'll see.
If there is god, and s/he is listening to me and wants to fulfill my inner desire, then it goes something like this. I have a successful cash-flow business (real estate?) which finances my living and my successful trading business and also gives me flexibility to go back and forth between US and Nepal. It allow me to get involved in Nepal in some capacity whether business, policy or art and culture. Recently, I have become very intereted in producing quality Nepali films. I think there are so many unique stories there that if a qualifty film can be made, there will be audience and (may be) awards.
My first hope was to make the day-trading pay for my living expenses while I think about my long-term plans but I am now realizing that it's not as "easy" as I first thought. Even after several months of doing, I am basically break-even meaning that I am losing on the trading costs which runs $100-$150 a day. There will be positive and negative days but I need to make positive days "blockbusters" and limit downsides on negative days. I am now giving up on my "prop" account because I could not pass Series 55 and only focusing on being a "retail" trader. The downside is that I'll have less leverage, only 4x versus 10x but I've never fully used up my leverage and so it really does not matter.
I am assuming that the slow summer months is the cause for my trading results. That means I am giving myself until November to see if this trading really works for me. If not, I will have to think about something else by next year.
I am still in a job-hunting mode. Although I am not very enthusiastic about getting another Job, I am getting more enthusiastic than before. That partly reflects my desire to have more financial security. Nothing has panned as of yet but I am hopeful that something will soon. If it is a job, I need to stick to my interest, which is investment research or active investment. One thing I am pinning my hope on is my former colleague/manager might land on something in the US (he is currently in the UK) and he'll ask me to join his team but we'll see.
If there is god, and s/he is listening to me and wants to fulfill my inner desire, then it goes something like this. I have a successful cash-flow business (real estate?) which finances my living and my successful trading business and also gives me flexibility to go back and forth between US and Nepal. It allow me to get involved in Nepal in some capacity whether business, policy or art and culture. Recently, I have become very intereted in producing quality Nepali films. I think there are so many unique stories there that if a qualifty film can be made, there will be audience and (may be) awards.
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